NBA best bets: Expert picks against the spread, moneyline predictions, odds for 3/28  

Celtics vs. Hawks

Thursday, March 28, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Hawks +16 (-110, FanDuel)

By PJ Walsh

With the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 taking center stage on Thursday, many basketball bettors may bypass the two-game NBA schedule altogether.

But the Action Network’s NBA PRO Projections, which compare out betting model’s projected lines to the latest spreads to pinpoint the biggest available edges, suggest bettors shouldn’t blindly ignore professional hoops tonight.

Specifically, the Celtics are 16-point favorites against the Hawks as of the time of writing. However, our NBA PRO Projections set the Celtics vs. Hawks spread at Atlanta +10.5.

The difference between the current spread of +16 and our projection of +10.5 results in a 6.1% edge for bettors willing to take the points in tonight’s first NBA matchup.

Pick: Hawks +16 (-110)

Celtics vs. Hawks

Celtics -16 (-102, DraftKings)

By Vince Akins

The Celtics completely let off the gas last game, allowing Atlanta to overcome a 30-point deficit. Boston was good enough to achieve that 30-point lead quickly in that game and this time we see them keeping the foot on the pedal against a very thin Atlanta squad.

When a team is this big of a road favorite, it comes with reason. Since 2002, road favorite of at least nine points after the All-Star Break are 268-158 ATS.

Boston has been very good of late as a huge favorite. The Celtics are 6-0 ATS since February 14 as an 11+ point favorite. For Boston, this is an immediate rematch from Monday's collapse. Teams that are at least seven-point favorite when favorite the same team for a second straight game are 383-281 ATS. Boston lost that game 120-118.

Road favorites of at least five points facing a team they lost to last meeting are a solid bet.

The Celtics have two days off but the Hawks played last night. Road Favorites past the first third of the season when they are rested and their opponent is not are 409-311 ATS. The rest advantage can be huge for teams both in the top five in the league in points per game.

The team with the rest advantage in matchups of teams both scoring at least four points more than league average are 333-273 ATS. And Boston is a team that has really been making the most of extra rest.

The Celtics are 7-0 ATS since January 2024 with 2+ days rest and a total under 244. They have won all seven of these games outright by 17+ points.

Boston was a 10.5-point favorite in Monday night's loss. Teams playing rested vs unrested when they lost as a favorite of more than eight points last game are 110-72 ATS.  The line in this game is significantly higher.

Teams that lost as at least a 9-point favorite last game and the line in this game is lower than that line are 81-56 ATS. It is the highest line Atlanta has seen in a game this season by five points.

Past game 50 of the season, when the game line is at least a point higher than the highest line the team has played to in any game on the season, those teams are 173-228 ATS. And this line comes with Atlanta having actually won three straight games.

Teams that are more than six-point underdogs when they are on 3+ game winning streaks are 377-502 ATS.

Boston had a 30-point lead that got away in that Monday game. Teams that are 4+ point favorites coming off a loss where they led by at least 19 points are 81-56 ATS.

Pick: Celtics -16 (-102)

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Bucks vs. Pelicans

Thursday, March 28, 8 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Pelicans +1 (-110, FanDuel)

By Chris Baker

I simply don’t think the Pelicans deserve to be underdogs to the Bucks on their homecourt.

Using season long net-ratings from dunksandthrees.com, the Pelicans rank fourth-best in the NBA in adjusted net-rating (+5.2) while the Bucks are down at 8th (+3.0).

The Pelicans ranking two full points better than the Bucks and still being underdogs despite being at home just doesn’t make much sense to me.

Brandon Ingram and Jose Alvarado are out but the Pelicans are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and have plenty of capable players to soak up their minutes.

We also have a Bucks team coming off an embarrassing double-OT loss to the Lakers so fatigue could definitely play a factor here especially when you consider this is a veteran-laden Bucks squad going up against a young Pelicans team.

This number just doesn’t properly account for the seasons these two teams have had thus far, so i will gladly back the Pelicans as home underdogs.

Pick: Pelicans +1 (-110)

Bucks vs. Pelicans

Bucks ML (-115, DraftKings)

By Scott Rickenbach

The Pelicans are still without Brandon Ingram. For the Bucks, their big guns are listed as probable for this game and so they are the healthier team in terms of top talent entering this matchup.

Milwaukee off a double OT home loss to the Lakers. Note that the Bucks are 5-2 SU this season when off a home loss.

Overall, Milwaukee enters this game on a 3-0 run when off a SU loss.

The Pelicans are also coming off a loss, but their bounce back is less likely. New Orleans is just 2-2 SU in the four games (including the one he got hurt) since Ingram was injured.

Also, the Pelicans have lost four of seven at home. The road team is actually 11-5 in the last 16 New Orleans games.

The Bucks had won 11 of 15 before the home loss to the Lakers and this is the ideal spot for a bounce back as Ingram had 26 the last time these teams met and the Pelicans still lost the game by 24 points.

Pick: Bucks ML (-115)

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